Following the recent Macquarie Group report regarding “unstoppable†solar price drops and market momentum, the Deutsche Bank has released a similar report regarding the solar market. The bank is expecting it to transition from subsidized to self-sustaining by 2014.
The German bank expects rooftop solar installations to be of particular focus, with attention aimed toward projects planned with little to no incentives. India is high on the list, and the prediction is that demand will be strong, between 1 and 2 gigawatts.
Italy is also of particular interest, with system prices between €1,500 and €2,000/kW. “Assuming small commercial enterprises are able to achieve 50% or more self consumption, solar is competitive with grid electricity in most parts of Italy,†the bank said in a statement.
As far as the United States, the prediction is a residential solar market around 1 gigawatt and a commercial market as high as 2 gigawatts.
Pricing predictions reflect the fact that utilization rates in China are on the rise, along with prices for polysilicon, wafers, and modules. The report predicts polysilicon pricing to stay pretty balanced, below $25/kg. With crystalline silicon modules, Chinese tier-1 prices have increased between 3 and 5 cents per watt. Chinese module prices are over 60 cents a watt, which is still less than Europe’s price around 70 cents a watt.
The good news is that the bank expects little to no government incentives will be needed in order for customers to continue making an affordable switch to solar power. It’s a great sign, and interesting when considering the fact that there are so many subsidies still out there for fossil fuels. It will be a positive spin for solar companies if they prove they can make it work without government funding.
Images CC licensed by Thomas Galvez: Solar panels in California
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